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1. Key Drivers of Solar Capacity Growth in 1H 2024

• Robust Solar Pipeline: A 132.7 GW solar project pipeline scheduled for 2024-2026 significantly boosted capacity additions.
• ALMM Reinstatement: The Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) order, reintroduced in April 2024, mandated the use of domestically produced modules for government-tendered projects.
• Domestic Manufacturing Focus: ALMM’s exclusive list of Indian manufacturers emphasized local production, propelling capacity expansion.

2. India’s Cumulative Solar Manufacturing Capacity as of June 2024

• Solar Modules: Reached a total capacity of 77.2 GW.
• Solar Cells: Achieved a capacity of 7.6 GW.

The top 10 manufacturers contributed to 58% of module production, with advanced technologies like Monocrystalline PERC, TOPCon, and HJT gaining traction.

3. Gujarat Leads the Way in Solar Manufacturing

• Gujarat emerged as the top solar manufacturing hub, hosting:
• 45% of solar module capacity.
• 52% of solar cell facilities.
• Key reasons for Gujarat’s dominance include:
• Proximity to major solar markets like Maharashtra and Rajasthan.
• Easy access to ports for reduced logistics costs.
• Reliable infrastructure, including consistent electricity and rapid substation setups.
• Other leading states:
• Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan (10% and 8% module capacity, respectively).
• Telangana and Himachal Pradesh for solar cell production (28% and 10%, respectively).

4. Market Trends in Solar Technology

• Mono PERC Technology: Dominates module production, comprising 57.2% of modules by 2026.
• Next-Gen Technologies: Growth expected in:
• TOPCon Modules
• Heterojunction (HJT) Modules
• Polycrystalline and thin-film technologies.

India’s solar module capacity is projected to reach 172 GW, with solar cell capacity expected to grow to 80 GW by 2026.

5. Policy Support and Long-Term Market Stability

• Need for Policy Certainty: According to Mercom India’s Managing Director, Priyadarshini Sanjay, “Long-term visibility and policy support are critical for sustaining investment in solar cell production.”
• Challenges: A supply-demand mismatch, particularly in solar cells, could delay projects if production capacity isn’t scaled up swiftly.

6. Surge in Solar Imports and Exports in 1H 2024

• Solar Imports:
• Module imports jumped 338% YoY to 13.2 GW, with 84% arriving in Q1 due to relaxed ALMM rules.
• Solar cell imports surged by 152% YoY, reaching 15.5 GW.
• Solar Exports:
• Domestic manufacturers exported 3 GW of modules, a 16% YoY increase.
• Solar cell exports grew by 195%, totaling 148.6 MW.

While export growth is promising, Sanjay noted that “local project demands must be prioritized to avoid domestic supply shortages.”

7. Price Trends and Supply Chain Dynamics

• High Module Prices: Limited supply of domestic modules and constrained imports keep module prices elevated.
• Global Trade Challenges: With countries building local supply chains and imposing trade restrictions, relying on exports poses risks for long-term growth.